Rystad Energy

This is Let's Talk Energy, your go-to podcast for smart energy insights.

I'm Noah Brenner, joining you today from the sidelines of Rystad Energy's 2026 EMEA Summit in London.

What's the state of the energy transition and where does it go next? the whole idea of an energy transition has become the topic of debate, with some arguing the world is simply adding more forms of energy and not moving away from any, as concerns about energy security and affordability take priority.

But while governments have been rethinking their support for technologies like green hydrogen or carbon capture and storage, those technologies that can stand on their own economics, like wind, solar, and batteries, have accelerated, despite, or perhaps because of, the energy shocks caused by wars in the Middle East and Ukraine.

The Woodmac team use similar scenario cases to the IEA, and they've calculated that the energy transition represents a 130 to 175 trillion US dollar investment opportunity between now and 2060.

Another well respected industry analyst is Rystad.

They published their annual global energy scenarios report in October, and they too see an extremely rapid growth in renewables, projecting that they'll provide 55% of global power generation in 10 years time.

Reistad also offered perhaps the clearest commentary of all three reports on this primary energy fallacy thing that we've all been hearing so much about recently.

The plan would create interconnected computing hubs and rely heavily on domestic technology suppliers.

Rystad Energy estimates China's installed data center capacity reached about thirty-two gigawatts at the end of twenty twenty-five and could rise above sixty gigawatts by twenty thirty.

Data center electricity consumption could reach two hundred eighty-nine terawatt hours by twenty thirty, more than twice twenty twenty-five levels.

AI and high-performance computing are expected to drive much of that growth.

China's data center industry is expanding as AI demand grows.

The same technological advances that make AI more useful also increase demand for computing power.

Rystad Energy expects Chinese data center electricity consumption to grow at roughly nineteen percent annually between twenty twenty-five and twenty thirty.

But those efficiency improvements may not offset the water consequences of rapidly increasing computational capacity.

Western Canadian Select, for example, which is Canada's heavy oil price benchmark, currently sits at $45 a barrel compared to WTI around $60.

Claudio Galimberti, the chief economist and global director of market analysis at Rystad Energy, estimates that the break-even price for oil development in Venezuela is around $80 a barrel.

So beyond the operating net back, the profitability you would see with existing infrastructure likely be negative, it doesn't make a whole lot of economic sense to go to a country with armed regimes hostile to you, spend billions of dollars on developing infrastructure, wading through years of planning, development, and construction, only to produce more unprofitable oil, all while the market is currently in oversupply.

In fact, another estimate by Rystad Energy even suggests that the country needs $53 billion over the next 15 years just to keep Venezuela's crude oil production flat, with there only being an estimated 300,000 barrels per day of additional supply that could be brought online with limited incremental spending.

So yes, in the short term, we could see the US begin substituting a portion of its Canadian imports with oil from Venezuela.

Uh, but the amount of infrastructure investment needed to expand Venezuelan oil production and refining in the US just doesn't make a lot of economic sense in the current environment.

But there we go.

Rystad Energy, it thinks the value of recyclable materials in solar panels could jump from about 2 billion today to roughly 80 billion by 2050.

By 2035, panels installed back in 2020 could supply as much as 21% of the silver needed to build new ones.

So wind blades, they've been a problem because they're made of composites that are hard to break down.

As political pressure grows over prices and industrial competitiveness, there are tough talks ahead.

Will the EU's flagship climate policy be fine-tuned, or are more radical measures on the table? Well, I'm delighted to be joined by Helge Fjellheim, who's head of carbon analysis at Rystad, and Ben Lee, who's head of carbon research at Redshaw Advisors.

A warm welcome to both of you.

Thank you so much.